{"id":49731,"date":"2017-10-03T16:54:00","date_gmt":"2017-10-03T16:54:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.scoresandstats.com\/?post_type=gambling-news&#038;p=49731"},"modified":"2025-05-22T15:11:30","modified_gmt":"2025-05-22T19:11:30","slug":"how-do-betting-odds-work","status":"publish","type":"expert-betting-guide","link":"https:\/\/diego-sas.cpp10.com\/expert-betting-guide\/how-do-betting-odds-work\/","title":{"rendered":"How Do Betting Odds Work"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"gb-container gb-container-b5afbf95 betting-hero alignfull\">\n<div class=\"gb-container gb-container-13c5ebc3 betting-hero-container\">\n<div class=\"gb-grid-wrapper gb-grid-wrapper-721587b3\">\n<div class=\"gb-grid-column gb-grid-column-bd2db232\"><div class=\"gb-container gb-container-bd2db232 betting-hero-container-body\">\n<div class=\"gb-container gb-container-b01fdb9c betting-hero-container-title\">\n\n<h1 class=\"gb-headline gb-headline-8b062c78 gb-headline-text\"><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong>How Do Betting Odds Work<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/h1>\n\n\n\n<p>Before you can start placing smart wagers, you need to understand how betting odds work. This includes how to read betting odds, and how to convert betting odds to probability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This article will start with some of the core concepts of betting odds as a refresher and will move into more advanced calculations that you can put into practice. By the end, you\u2019ll be able to use the implied probability, vig, and overround to identify which wagers are inflated, and which are worth betting on.<br><\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"gb-container gb-container-8824a6c6 betting-hero-container-sports\">\n<div class=\"gb-container gb-container-3115c925 gb-container gb-container-03af30e8\"><a class=\"gb-container-link\" href=\"#how-to-read-betting-odds\"><\/a>\n\n<p class=\"gb-headline gb-headline-29f28d15\"><span class=\"gb-icon\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"img\" height=\"1em\" width=\"1em\" viewBox=\"0 0 256 512\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path fill=\"currentColor\" d=\"M224.3 273l-136 136c-9.4 9.4-24.6 9.4-33.9 0l-22.6-22.6c-9.4-9.4-9.4-24.6 0-33.9l96.4-96.4-96.4-96.4c-9.4-9.4-9.4-24.6 0-33.9L54.3 103c9.4-9.4 24.6-9.4 33.9 0l136 136c9.5 9.4 9.5 24.6.1 34z\"><\/path><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"gb-headline-text\"><a href=\"#how-to-read-betting-odds\" data-type=\"internal\" data-id=\"#how-to-read-betting-odds\">How to Read Betting Odds<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"gb-container gb-container-daccfcd0 gb-container gb-container-03af30e8\"><a class=\"gb-container-link\" href=\"#How%20Bookies%20Make%20Money\"><\/a>\n\n<p class=\"gb-headline gb-headline-5b300d8c\"><span class=\"gb-icon\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"img\" height=\"1em\" width=\"1em\" viewBox=\"0 0 256 512\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path fill=\"currentColor\" d=\"M224.3 273l-136 136c-9.4 9.4-24.6 9.4-33.9 0l-22.6-22.6c-9.4-9.4-9.4-24.6 0-33.9l96.4-96.4-96.4-96.4c-9.4-9.4-9.4-24.6 0-33.9L54.3 103c9.4-9.4 24.6-9.4 33.9 0l136 136c9.5 9.4 9.5 24.6.1 34z\"><\/path><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"gb-headline-text\"><a href=\"#How Bookies Make Money\" data-type=\"internal\" data-id=\"#how-bookies-make-money\">How Bookies Make Money<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"gb-container gb-container-0ece202e gb-container gb-container-03af30e8\"><a class=\"gb-container-link\" href=\"#how-to-convert-betting-odds-to-probability\"><\/a>\n\n<p class=\"gb-headline gb-headline-b7cf875d\"><span class=\"gb-icon\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"img\" height=\"1em\" width=\"1em\" viewBox=\"0 0 256 512\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path fill=\"currentColor\" d=\"M224.3 273l-136 136c-9.4 9.4-24.6 9.4-33.9 0l-22.6-22.6c-9.4-9.4-9.4-24.6 0-33.9l96.4-96.4-96.4-96.4c-9.4-9.4-9.4-24.6 0-33.9L54.3 103c9.4-9.4 24.6-9.4 33.9 0l136 136c9.5 9.4 9.5 24.6.1 34z\"><\/path><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"gb-headline-text\"><a href=\"#how-to-convert-betting-odds-to-probability\" data-type=\"internal\" data-id=\"#how-to-convert-betting-odds-to-probability\">Convert Betting Odds to Probability<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"gb-container gb-container-63a8d976 gb-container gb-container-03af30e8\"><a class=\"gb-container-link\" href=\"#advanced-betting-odds-concepts\"><\/a>\n\n<p class=\"gb-headline gb-headline-9d451448\"><span class=\"gb-icon\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"img\" height=\"1em\" width=\"1em\" viewBox=\"0 0 256 512\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path fill=\"currentColor\" d=\"M224.3 273l-136 136c-9.4 9.4-24.6 9.4-33.9 0l-22.6-22.6c-9.4-9.4-9.4-24.6 0-33.9l96.4-96.4-96.4-96.4c-9.4-9.4-9.4-24.6 0-33.9L54.3 103c9.4-9.4 24.6-9.4 33.9 0l136 136c9.5 9.4 9.5 24.6.1 34z\"><\/path><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"gb-headline-text\"><a href=\"#advanced-betting-odds-concepts\" data-type=\"internal\" data-id=\"#advanced-betting-odds-concepts\">Advanced Betting Odds Concepts<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<div style=\"height:44px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"how-to-read-betting-odds\">How to Read Betting Odds<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>There are three main types of betting odds: American, Decimal, and Fractional. American odds tend to be US-centric, kind of like the Imperial System. Decimal odds are the common denomination in Europe and the rest of the betting world.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fractional odds tend to be used for racing, particularly horse or greyhound racing. Even in the US, fractional odds are still used at racetracks and racebooks.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"gb-container gb-container-c2b04678\">\n<div class=\"gb-container gb-container-adac26c1\">\n\n<h3 class=\"gb-headline gb-headline-0ccc2843 gb-headline-text\"><strong>American<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>American odds, also known as moneyline odds, are the most common format in the United States. These odds are presented as either a positive or negative number. A negative number indicates the favorite and shows how much you need to wager to win $100.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For example, if a team is listed at -150, you need to bet $150 to win $100. On the other hand, a positive number represents the underdog and indicates how much you can win on a $100 bet. If a team is listed at +200, a $100 bet will return $200 in profit.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"gb-container gb-container-bf27383d\">\n<div class=\"gb-container gb-container-26a5ffc5\">\n\n<h3 class=\"gb-headline gb-headline-52cce325 gb-headline-text\"><strong>Decimal<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Decimal odds are more common in Europe, Canada, and Australia. This format is straightforward, showing the total return for every $1 wagered.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For instance, if the odds are 2.50, you\u2019ll receive $2.50 for every $1 you bet, which includes both your original stake and the profit. To determine your total payout, simply multiply your stake by the decimal odds. Decimal odds are intuitive because they directly show the potential return on investment.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"gb-container gb-container-065a61dd\">\n<div class=\"gb-container gb-container-b6451144\">\n\n<h3 class=\"gb-headline gb-headline-76c6ba00 gb-headline-text\"><strong>Fractional<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Fractional odds are most often used in the UK and Ireland, particularly in horse racing. These odds are presented as fractions, such as 5\/1 (five-to-one) or 3\/2 (three-to-two). The number on the left (the numerator) represents the potential profit, while the number on the right (the denominator) is the stake.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So, if you bet $2 at odds of 5\/1, you\u2019ll win $5 for every $1 wagered, resulting in a $10 return on a $2 bet. Fractional odds are slightly more complex to calculate but are deeply rooted in traditional betting culture.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"How Bookies Make Money\">How Bookies Make Money<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Bookmakers make money by setting odds that give them a built-in advantage, ensuring profitability regardless of the outcome of a sporting event. This advantage is crucial for maintaining a sustainable business in the world of sports betting.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"what-is-vigorish\">What is Vigorish?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Vigorish, often called &#8220;vig&#8221; or &#8220;juice,&#8221; is the fee bookmakers charge for accepting a bet. It\u2019s essentially the bookmaker&#8217;s cut or commission, designed to guarantee a profit over the long run. The vig is embedded in the odds and that is why the payout for a winning bet is slightly less than what it would be if the odds were truly even.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For example, in a standard point spread bet, both sides might be listed at -110 odds. This means you have to bet $110 to win $100. The extra $10 represents the vigorish, ensuring that the bookmaker profits as long as the betting action is balanced. Even if the action isn&#8217;t perfectly balanced, the vigorish helps cushion any potential losses for the bookmaker.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We\u2019ll talk more about calculating the vig later in the article, and we\u2019ll show you how you can use the vig percentage to make smarter wagers.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"how-to-convert-betting-odds-to-probability\">How to Convert Betting Odds to Probability<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Learning how to read odds is only the beginning of the funnel. As you become more advanced, you\u2019ll need to learn how to calculate probability using the betting odds provided by sportsbooks.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But first, let\u2019s discuss the difference between actual probability and implied probability.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"gb-container gb-container-8f7a31c0\">\n<div class=\"gb-container gb-container-1d89a50e\">\n\n<h3 class=\"gb-headline gb-headline-fee73bee gb-headline-text\"><strong>Actual Probability vs. Implied Probability<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Actual probability is usually determined by analyzing historical data, statistics, and other relevant factors<\/strong> that affect the outcome of an event. For instance, in sports, this might involve considering team performance, player statistics, weather conditions, and other variables.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Implied probability is the probability derived from the betting odds offered by a bookmaker<\/strong>. It reflects the bookmaker&#8217;s estimation of an event\u2019s likelihood, adjusted to include their profit margin (or &#8220;vig&#8221;).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s much easier for sports bettors to calculate the implied probability of a wager because the sportsbook has already done half the work for you. The bookie will have calculated the actual probability of an event, likely using a complex algorithm fed by multiple datasets. The resulting odds were then tweaked to add the bookmaker\u2019s margin. If we do a little math, we can easily calculate the implied probability of an event, as well as the bookie\u2019s cut.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"gb-container gb-container-c4fb868e alignfull\" id=\"nfl-betting-tips\">\n<div class=\"gb-container gb-container-327fa33d\">\n<div class=\"gb-container gb-container-e2bbce54\">\n\n<h2 class=\"gb-headline gb-headline-8a2b12d5 gb-headline-text\" id=\"All-NFL-Playoff-Games\"><strong><strong>Calculating Implied Probability<\/strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n<div class=\"gb-container gb-container-0313a21c\">\n\n<p>There are a few different formulas you can use to calculate the implied probability of a wager. Here\u2019s a look:<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"gb-grid-wrapper gb-grid-wrapper-6052f12c\">\n<div class=\"gb-grid-column gb-grid-column-19807202\"><div class=\"gb-container gb-container-19807202\">\n<div class=\"gb-container gb-container-c6fbe1b9\">\n<div class=\"gb-container gb-container-7c3bbe9b\">\n\n<p class=\"has-var-color-primary-dark-light-color has-text-color\"><strong>Positive American Odds:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Formula<\/strong>: Probability = 100 \/ (Odds + 100) X 100<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Example<\/strong>: 100 \/ (125 + 100) X 100 = 44.44%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"gb-container gb-container-5183d8d4\">\n<div class=\"gb-container gb-container-2a52a7cf\">\n\n<p class=\"has-var-color-primary-dark-light-color has-text-color\"><strong>Negative American Odds:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Formula<\/strong>: Probability = Odds \/ (Odds + 100)&nbsp; X 100<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Example<\/strong>: 150 \/ (150 + 100) X 100 = 60%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"gb-container gb-container-6f37cb94\">\n<div class=\"gb-container gb-container-e4f0197f\">\n\n<p class=\"has-var-color-primary-dark-light-color has-text-color\"><strong>Decimal Odds<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Formula<\/strong>: Probability = 1 \/ (Odds) X 100<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Example<\/strong>: 1 \/ (2.50) X 100 = 40%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"gb-container gb-container-8dc585b4\">\n<div class=\"gb-container gb-container-0b90b101\">\n\n<p class=\"has-var-color-primary-dark-light-color has-text-color\"><strong>Fractional Odds<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Formula<\/strong>: Probability = Denominator \/ (Numerator + Denominator) X 100<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Example<\/strong>: 1 \/ (5+1) X 100 = 16.67%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<div style=\"height:41px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"applying-implied-probability-to-find-the-vigorish\">Applying Implied Probability to Find the Vigorish<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Let&#8217;s assume we have a two-outcome event, such as a football game, with the following American odds:<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"gb-container gb-container-96785620\">\n<div class=\"gb-container gb-container-8e5303e9\">\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Team A: -150<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Team B: +200<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<div style=\"height:23px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>First, we convert these odds into implied probabilities:<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"gb-container gb-container-9c609147\">\n<div class=\"gb-container gb-container-afd108a6\">\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Implied Probability for Team A (odds of -150):<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Probability (A)= 150 \/ (150 +100) X 100 = <strong>0.60 or 60%<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Implied Probability for Team B (odds of +200):<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Probability (B)=100 \/ (200+100) X 100 = <strong>0.3333 or 33.33%<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<div style=\"height:28px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Now, sum the implied probabilities of all possible outcomes:<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"gb-container gb-container-e23e056a\">\n<div class=\"gb-container gb-container-1f3cbc76\">\n\n<p><strong>Total Implied Probability =Probability (A) + Probability (B) <\/strong>=0.60+0.3333 =0.9333 or 93.33%<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<div style=\"height:27px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>To find the vig:<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"gb-container gb-container-c937eb6e\">\n<div class=\"gb-container gb-container-ef547611\">\n\n<p><strong>Vig=Total Implied Probability\u22121.00 <\/strong>=0.9333\u22121.00=\u22120.0667 \u22486.67%<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<div style=\"height:35px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>So, in this example, the bookmaker\u2019s vig is approximately 6.67%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Knowing the percentage of vigorish on a wager can help you decide whether it\u2019s worth your while or not. Some hard-core sports bettors won\u2019t bet on a wager with 10% vig or higher. The higher the vig, the more money the bookie is making off your wager.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"how-to-put-implied-probability-and-vig-into-practice\">How to Put Implied Probability and Vig Into Practice<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Once you\u2019ve calculated the implied probability and vig for a few wagers, it becomes like second nature. You\u2019ll start to memorize the stats for each line, and eventually, you\u2019ll be able to look at a moneyline and immediately know whether it\u2019s a high-vig wager or not.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One of the best ways you can use implied probability is with futures wagers, like props on which team will win the F1 Constructor\u2019s Championship.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:41px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXeatT5Yt-0od8AI3kJGghwWpev_jkOewAskLO9QLyp5YTKy6tNaQjX_uH9gv6UOqTTG0bXA5HpW9HEST6gHwBBNtPzVtiiCu21uEkFFPYRivHSXTEGeyRzcz4HzHU6cVOvCTyshx4dAjU-FoSR_JCPb4CKn?key=AuIcYToHB6fVQEKbA-I6dA\" alt=\"\" title=\"\"><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<div style=\"height:41px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Using implied probability, we know that BetUS thinks:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Red Bull has a 45% chance of winning<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>McLaren has a 63% chance of winning<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Mercedes and Ferrari both have a 2.94% chance of winning.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s clear to us then that McLaren is the favorite for this event, but not by much. Red Bull\u2019s 45% chance of winning might indicate underdog value here.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Using implied probability in this way can help you identify which players\/teams are heavily favored, and which might be close runners up.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"advanced-betting-odds-concepts\">Advanced Betting Odds Concepts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Once you have developed your skills at determining probability and calculating vig, you should have a good grasp of how sports betting works. However, you can always take your skills a bit further. Here are a few advanced betting concepts that can take your skills to the next level:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"use-overround-to-identify-inflated-prices\">Use Overround to Identify Inflated Prices<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Where vigorish represents the expected profit margin for the sportsbook, assuming that bettors are placing smart, researched wagers.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/medium.com\/analytics-vidhya\/bookmaking-economics-8710d25a42a5#id_token=eyJhbGciOiJSUzI1NiIsImtpZCI6ImE0OTM5MWJmNTJiNThjMWQ1NjAyNTVjMmYyYTA0ZTU5ZTIyYTdiNjUiLCJ0eXAiOiJKV1QifQ.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.LmbS_1OB0P6DW9sKGdO4YVJJt4ZlvqhLX_obhJA9bTCuhZVdUV2e_YYclPRElDlZ6kXJN8mXMuuu2Xs4bOs6zExO3otc4jMlq7PF74Ymm2HWgSXmrLiezmFdOowqUzoXoHfV-ZcCxvvDOCyhIVfUx_7zbozPKOYtzmPxXlNiDJtbnZPMVtbb1qywmXokGwzeW58t7EDUuvRHtrKiG-SjO-usnkLo9lK5XIEsKFyNbkHcWr1e1fkoqqnXCSuyhVbyKaApvdoX2hW84M4xUc26S_hYaUZ1iGmtbFDeohE6QETQHgHvbniGWz481eAlCp9JKhY2KujtGDTmmKM0seqquQ\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The overround<\/a> is \u201cthe cumulative implied probability across all prices or odds of every available proposition within a market.\u201d But what does this mean?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>People often confuse vig and overround for the same thing, when in fact, they are two different pieces of information that are derived from one another. You can calculate the overround by using this formula:<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"gb-container gb-container-ea58ce04\">\n<div class=\"gb-container gb-container-67fefb88\">\n\n<h4 class=\"gb-headline gb-headline-74b857f8 gb-headline-text\"><strong>Formula <\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Overround = Vigorish \/ (1 &#8211; Vigorish) X 100<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<div style=\"height:25px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Let\u2019s take the example we used above to determine the overround on the odds for Team A (-150) and Team B (+200). We determined that the vigorish was 6.67%.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"gb-container gb-container-5fe9eb49\">\n<div class=\"gb-container gb-container-647f1be3\">\n\n<h4 class=\"gb-headline gb-headline-21b8e27e gb-headline-text\"><strong>Example<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>0.0667 \/ (1 &#8211; 0.0667) X 100 = 7.14%<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<div style=\"height:25px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>As you can see, the overround is higher than the vig, indicating that the bookmaker has cooked a higher margin into the odds than they expect to get out of it. Think of the overround as a kind of double-layer insurance for the bookie.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>How can you use the overround to find better wagers? Here are some core takeaways:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>A high overround indicates that the odds might not be as competitive. Compare with the overround on the same lines at other sportsbooks.&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Vig is the \u201ctax\u201d you pay to wager and is unavoidable. You should aim to find a low vig and a low overround.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"understanding-market-efficiency-theory\">Understanding Market Efficiency Theory<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The Market Efficiency Theory in the context of sports betting refers to the idea that the odds offered by bookmakers accurately reflect the true probabilities of the outcomes of a given event. This theory is grounded in the broader concept of efficient markets, which posits that all available information is already reflected in the prices (or odds) offered, making it difficult to consistently achieve returns above the market average.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For a moment, let\u2019s consider that MET is a reality. If that were the case and the market was fully efficient, no bettor could consistently gain an advantage by using information that is already widely known and reflected in the odds.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Any edge a bettor might find is likely to be small and quickly corrected by the market. For example, if a bookmaker posts odds that don\u2019t fully account for a key player&#8217;s injury, sharp bettors might exploit this, but the market will quickly adjust the odds as information spreads.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If the market were truly efficient, there would be no incentive to wager on sports. Only niche sports with limited coverage might offer some value, and that\u2019s not fun for anyone.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Thankfully, we live in a world where Market Efficiency Theory is not a reality<\/strong>. But, by considering MET as a real threat, we come to understand the value of implied probability over true probability. Recency bias, bettor and public opinions, and human error are all market inefficiencies you as a bettor should watch out for.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One of the best examples of market inefficiency is live betting. Let\u2019s say you\u2019re in the stands watching the Pittsburgh Pirates play the Yankees, and you have your mobile sportsbook on your phone.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you\u2019re watching the game events as they unfold, you have a slight advantage over the sportsbook if you\u2019re betting live. Their betting odds and algorithms are based on statistics uploaded to databases. You can expect a delay between the events in the game and the updated odds. While the delay is slight (usually between 30-60 seconds), it\u2019s just one example of market inefficiency.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"hedging-middling-and-arbitrage\">Hedging, Middling, and Arbitrage<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Hedging, middling, and arbitrage are advanced betting strategies that experienced sports bettors use to manage risk, lock in profits, or take advantage of discrepancies in the betting market. Here&#8217;s a detailed explanation of each:<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"gb-container gb-container-97928b8d\">\n<div class=\"gb-container gb-container-98c7d1f4\">\n\n<h4 class=\"gb-headline gb-headline-07d6778c gb-headline-text\"><strong>Hedging<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.scoresandstats.com\/expert-betting-guide\/hedge-bet\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Hedging is a strategy used to reduce risk<\/a> by placing a second bet on the opposite outcome of your initial wager. The goal is to minimize potential losses or guarantee a profit regardless of the final outcome of the event.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Pros of Hedging:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Reduces risk and potential losses.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Can guarantee a profit in certain scenarios.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Cons of Hedging:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Reduces potential maximum profit.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Requires careful timing and additional capital.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"gb-container gb-container-f31ae2dd\">\n<div class=\"gb-container gb-container-1d3c5495\">\n\n<h4 class=\"gb-headline gb-headline-b514aa18 gb-headline-text\"><strong>Middling<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Middling is a strategy that involves placing two opposing bets on the same event at different points in time, hoping that the final outcome falls between the two wagers. If this happens, you can win both bets and profit from the \u201cmiddle\u201d of the line movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Pros of Middling:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Potential to win both bets if the final result lands in the middle.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Capitalizes on line movement, a common occurrence in betting markets.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Cons of Middling:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>If the final score doesn\u2019t land in the middle, you lose one bet and possibly break even or incur a small loss.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Requires active monitoring of line movements.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"gb-container gb-container-ba6c88e6\">\n<div class=\"gb-container gb-container-c00f41d6\">\n\n<h4 class=\"gb-headline gb-headline-b12b68f0 gb-headline-text\"><strong>Arbitrage<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Arbitrage betting, or &#8220;arbing,&#8221; is a strategy where a bettor places bets on all possible outcomes of an event with different bookmakers, ensuring a profit regardless of the result. This is possible when there are discrepancies in the odds offered by different bookmakers. Arbitrage is the easiest of these strategies to master, and with the calculations we discussed for vig and overround, you\u2019re already close to developing this skill.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Pros of Arbitrage Betting:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Guaranteed profit if executed correctly.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Takes advantage of market inefficiencies.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Cons of Arbitrage Betting:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Margins are often small, requiring large stakes to make significant profits.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bookmakers may limit or ban accounts that frequently engage in arbitrage.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Requires constant monitoring of odds across multiple bookmakers.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<div style=\"height:41px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"make-better-wagers-when-you-have-better-data\">Make Better Wagers When You Have Better Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Once you work with implied probability, the vig, and overround enough, handling that information becomes like second nature.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But, if you want to get closer to betting with actual probability than simply relying on the data that sportsbooks provide, you need to get better information.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One of the best ways to do that is to rely on a handicapper. They provide a series of picks, each with a prescribed value and potential return rate. These picks have been meticulously crafted using game, team, and player statistics, and have been compared to sports betting site odds for accuracy.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As a beginner or intermediate bettor, our handicappers can help you boost your bankroll with some targeted winning wagers. As an advanced punter, you can see what lines we\u2019re betting along and make inferences on other games\/markets. To find out more about our handicapping services, <a href=\"https:\/\/sas.sportshub.com\/register\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">sign up for a free account today<\/a>.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:71px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>How to Read Betting Odds There are three main types of betting odds: American, Decimal, and Fractional. American odds tend to be<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":230566,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false},"expert-betting-guide-category":[1226],"expert-betting-guide-tag":[],"class_list":["post-49731","expert-betting-guide","type-expert-betting-guide","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","expert-betting-guide-category-uncategorized","resize-featured-image"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/diego-sas.cpp10.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/expert-betting-guide\/49731","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/diego-sas.cpp10.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/expert-betting-guide"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/diego-sas.cpp10.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/expert-betting-guide"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/diego-sas.cpp10.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/14"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/diego-sas.cpp10.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49731"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/diego-sas.cpp10.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/230566"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/diego-sas.cpp10.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49731"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"expert-betting-guide-category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/diego-sas.cpp10.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/expert-betting-guide-category?post=49731"},{"taxonomy":"expert-betting-guide-tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/diego-sas.cpp10.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/expert-betting-guide-tag?post=49731"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}