NASCAR Picks: Your Weekly Winning Edge

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For the first time since 2008, NASCAR returns to the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez in Mexico City, Mexico, in an exciting weekend of road racing. The Xfinity Series ran here from 2005 to 2008, but this Sunday will mark the Cup Series’ first race at the prestigious Mexican road course.

The Craftsman Truck Series will have the week off after filling in for the Xfinity Series last weekend. So, Xfinity returns to its normal Saturday slot for The Chilango 150, which you can watch in its entirety on The CW beginning at 4:30pm ET.

The Cup Series will celebrate Father’s Day with the Viva Mexico 250 live on Sunday. NASCAR bettors and fans can watch this historic event live on Amazon Prime beginning at 3pm ET.

Without any further delay, pull those seatbelts down tight and strap in as we take a look at some of our best NASCAR picks this week.

NASCAR Picks Today

NASCAR Cup Series Picks This Week

• Race: Viva Mexico 250
• Race #: 16^th of the season
• Date: June 15
• Where: Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez

Since this is a road race, you see that the sports betting sites have most of the sport’s top road course drivers listed as the betting favorites. The top handicappers are leaning into these pre-race favorites as well. However, I think this is a great chance to find some value on the boards.

Will a road course ringer like Shane Van Gisbergen win the race as expected or will we see one of Cup’s top drivers like Kyle Larson surprise the field?

Top Chevrolet Driver at Mexico City

• Shane Van Gisbergen (+200)
• William Byron (+500)
• Kyle Larson (+650)
• Chase Elliott (+650)
• AJ Allmendinger (+700)
• Kyle Busch (+1000)
• Daniel Suarez (+1000)

For drivers like Shan Van Gisbergen and AJ Allmendinger, this race represents an optimal opportunity to win a race and lock in a spot for the Playoffs. Outside of the handful of road races remaining in the regular season, SVG and Allmendinger are longshots to win.

And, yet, I still find it hard to put confidence in either of these drivers at this point of the season. SVG sits 33^rd in the standings and has just one Top 10 in 15 races. Allmendinger sits 19^th, which is closer to the cut-off line but still needs a win to get into the Playoffs. I don’t see that happening on Sunday.

Kyle Busch has been a prolific road driver in his career. Yet, until he wins a race on the season, I can’t pick him to head to victory lane.

I will be rooting for Daniel Suarez to win this race since he’s from Mexico and I’m a sucker for a great story. However, that’s more like wishful thinking than a likely outcome.

Ultimately, I believe that the Top Chevy will come down to Hendrick Motorsports, and possibly even the checkered flag.

Combined, these three drivers, not including Alex Bowman, have had ample success in road races. William Byron has two road course wins including the 2024 COTA race. Kyle Larson has six road course wins including the 2024 editions of ROVAL and Sonoma.

Chase Elliott has the most road wins for active drivers in the Cup Series with seven. Although it’s been a few years since he last won a road race, I can’t help but think the #9 car is going to do something special this weekend.

You can’t go wrong with Larson or Elliott. I’ve flip-flopped on them all week. For now, I’m taking Elliott to finish as the best Chevy.

Bet: Chase Elliott (+650)

Top Ford Driver at Mexico City

• Chris Buescher (-140)
• Austin Cindric (+425)
• Ryan Blaney (+650)
• Joey Logano (+650)
• Todd Gilliland (+1800
• Noah Gragson (+3300)
• Brad Keselowski (+3300)
• Ryan Preece (+3300)

While talented, I don’t see Noah Gragson, Todd Gilliland, or Ryan Preece winning this weekend. It’s hard to imagine any of these three drivers picking up their first win of the season at a track that the Cup Series has never raced at.

Additionally, the veterans of Ryan Blaney, Brad Keselowski, and Joey Logano also seem like longshots to win the race or finish as the Top Ford. Keselowski is mired in a terrible slump, while Blaney and Logano aren’t necessarily known for being elite road course drivers. However, of the three, I would take Logano.

Almost by default this prop bet comes down to the remaining options. And, of those two drivers, I like Chris Buescher better. Austin Cindric has never won a road race in his Cup career. Buescher has one win and 15 Top 10s with a 12.9 average finish in Cup Series road races.

Those are numbers I can get behind. I also like the reigning Cup Series Champion Logano as a sleeper play for this prop bet.

Bet: Chris Buescher (-140)

Top Toyota Driver at Mexico City

• Christopher Bell (+115)
• Tyler Reddick (+175)
• Chase Briscoe (+600)
• Ty Gibbs (+650)
• Denny Hamlin (+1400)
• Bubba Wallace (+4000)

It’s rare seeing Denny Hamlin listed as such a longshot. With that said, there’s a chance he might not even compete in this race on Sunday due to the birth of his child. Additionally, he’s not the most prolific road course driver in the first place.

You can also eliminate Bubba Wallace right off the bat as the has zero wins, one Top 5, and three Top 10s in 31 road starts. Ouch!

Chase Briscoe has never even cracked the Top 5 in a road race for the Cup Series. And, his six Top 10s in 23 road starts does nothing to instill confidence this weekend.

I like Ty Gibbs better than Briscoe as he has three Top 5s and four Top 10s in 13 road starts for the Cup Series. But that’s not going to get it done this Sunday.

This prop bet comes down to Tyler Reddick and Christopher Bell. Reddick has three wins, eight Top 5s, 16 Top 10s and a 12.0 average finish in 25 road races. Bell has nearly the same numbers with three wins, eight Top 5s, 14 Top 10s and a 13.0 average finish in 25 road starts.

With that said, there are two big reasons why I am taking Bell over Reddick. The first reason is that Bell has three wins this year and Reddick has none. The second reason is that Bell is racing in the Xfinity Series event on Saturday, which will give him a slight edge on the track.

Bet: Christopher Bell (+115) 

NASCAR Xfinity Series Picks This Week

• Race: The Chilango 150
• Race #: 16^th of the season
• Date: June 14
• Where: Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez

The Xfinity Series returns to action for the first time since Nashville two weeks ago. In that race, the defending Xfinity Series Champion Just Allgaier came away with his third win of the season which ties him with Austin Hill for the most in Xfinity so far.

This weekend, both drivers are considered longshots to win at Mexico City. Instead, we see drivers like Connor Zilisch rise to the top of the betting boards for The Chilango 150.

Interestingly, there’s a trio of Cup Series drivers that are nipping at Zilisch’s rear bumper with oddsmakers as Ty Gibbs, Daniel Suarez and Christopher Bell are all taking the starting line on Saturday.

Will we see a Cup Series driver pick up their fourth Xfinity Series win this weekend or will a full-time Xfinity driver take home the checkered flag?

The Chilango 150 Odds

• Connor Zilisch (-105)
• Ty Gibbs (+320)
• Daniel Suarez (+350)
• Christopher Bell (+700)
• Sam Mayer (+1200)
• Justin Allgaier (+1600)
• Austin Hill (+2800)
• Sheldon Creed (+2500)
• Carson Kvapil (+4000)
• Jesse Love (+4000)
• Taylor Gray (+5000)
• Sammy Smith (+5000)
• Christian Eckes (+8000)
• Brandon Jones (+15000)

The Chilango 150 Favorites

Connor Zilisch (-105) is a large betting favorite for this race and rightfully so. The youngster has quickly established himself as the top road course driver in the Xfinity Series as of now. In his two Xfinity road starts, he won at Watkins Glen last year and COTA this year. Plus, he led the most laps in each race.

Ty Gibbs (+320) won the Xfinity Series title in 2022. That year, he led the series with seven wins. One of those victories came at Road America. He also finished runner-up at The ROVAL.

In road races, Gibbs might struggle against the elite of the Cup Series, however, he’s very capable of winning this event in the Xfinity Series.

Daniel Suarez (+350) will be driving for JR Motorsports this weekend along with Zilisch and Allgaier. For his career, he has three wins at this venue when racing in the NASCAR Mexico Series. Suarez is the 2016 Xfinity Series champ and has three wins, 33 Top 5s, and 56 Top 10s in 88 Xfinity starts.

The talented Mexican driver made the following comments about racing for JR Motorsports this weekend:

“I’ve been very impressed with how fast JR Motorsports has been this season, and I can’t wait to get behind the wheel of the Quaker State Chevrolet. I appreciate everyone at Quaker State and JR Motorsports for coming on board to make this a reality. I think it’s going to be a good weekend.”

Christopher Bell (+700) has three road wins in his Cup Series career. However, he also has checkered flags in the Xfinity Series on road courses as well. The most recent one came at Road America in 2019. Bell is the best driver in this race. However, the annual Cup Championship contender will need a strong car to compete with the guys listed above him.

The Chilango 150 Betting Value

Sam Mayer (+1200) provides solid value for this Saturday’s race. He’s the only non-Cup Series driver other than Zilisch to win a road race last year. Mayer won at ROVAL last fall. And, he beat out two road course elite drivers in Allmendinger and SVG. He was also 9^th at COTA and 3^rd at Sonoma, which shows that he’s a strong value play this weekend.

Justin Allgaier (+1600) remains at the top of the driver standings and looks like a strong contender to win this year’s championship. For his career, Allgaier has three road wins in the Xfinity Series with the most recent ones coming in 2018 at Mid-Ohio and Road America.

Last year, he finished in the Top 10 for most of the road races and even scored a runner-up to SVG at Portland. Allgaier presents solid value this weekend.

Austin Hill (+2800) is more known for his superspeedway prowess, but he’s a small value option this weekend. Hill was 5^th at Sonoma last year, 4^th at the ROVAL and runner-up at Portland. That’s three Top 5s in road races last season, which gives me some optimism that he can crack the Top 5 again this weekend.

The Chilango 150 Longshot

Jesse Love (+4000) is like his teammate Hill where neither is known for their road racing. Yet, Love finished in the Top 10 for two road races last year and has an 11.6 average finish on the year so far. Love sits fourth in the driver standings and provides appeal for a longshot bet.

The Chilango 150 Predictions

There are a handful of drivers that I like for this race: Zilisch, Gibbs, Bell, Suarez, Mayer and Allgaier. Of this group, I will be rooting for Suarez to win in his home country. I think he has a better shot at winning this race than the Cup Series event on Sunday.

Unfortunately for Suarez, Zilisch is the man to beat. And, even though they will be teammates on Saturday, I don’t see any help between the two drivers or teams. Instead, I see Zilisch finding his way to the front and dominating this race as he picks up the victory.

Bet: Connor Zilisch (-105)

The Chilango 150 Top 10 Finish

• Connor Zilisch (-5000)
• Ty Gibbs (-600)
• Daniel Suarez (-600)
• Christopher Bell (-400)
• Sam Mayer (-280)
• Justin Allgaier (-200)
• Austin Hill (-150)
• Sheldon Creed (-150)
• Carson Kvapil (+125)

Austin Hill (-150) has solid odds for a Top 10 finish on Saturday. As mentioned above, he had three Top 5s in road races last year. He sits 2^nd in the standings with three wins, seven Top 5s, and 10 Top 10s in 15 races so far.

When you combine his success this year, with consistent Top 5 finishes in road races last season, Hill is the best Top 10 option for this prop bet. More specifically, he’s the best option that still offers any value.

Bet: Austin Hill (-150)