The UFC is back in Atlanta, Georgia for the first time since 2019 this weekend when Kamaru Usman and Joaquin Buckley face off in the main event at UFC on ESPN 69. This will be the UFC’s fifth ever stop in ATL, while fans get a pretty underrated follow-up to an explosive UFC 316.

The 38-year old Usman makes his return to the Octagon for the first time since 2023, and is looking to snap a three-fight losing streak. He is part of an explosive main card that also features Rose Namajunas, Edmen Shahbazyan, and Gody Garbrandt, among others.

This is definitely an entertaining card, and one that will also make getting your UFC picks correct a bit more difficult than you’d like. Luckily, I will walk you through the latest UFC on ESP 69 odds and point you to the likely winners for each match.

Where To Watch UFC on ESPN 69?

UFC on ESPN 69 is not a PPV event, so you can watch the whole thing if you have ESPN. The Prelims can be viewed on ESPN+, while the main card will be televised on ESPN+ and ESPN.

When Is UFC on ESPN 69?

You can tune into UFC on ESPN 69 starting with the Prelims at 6:00 pm EST, while the main card gets going at 9:00 pm EST.

Where Is UFC on ESPN 69?

Want to watch UFC Fight Night in person? Head to State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia.

UFC on ESPN 69 Main Card Odds

Check out the latest UFC Fight Night odds for the Main Card, courtesy of the top sports betting sites: 

This is a really fun main card. Unfortunately, it’s not exactly priced that way. The betting favorites are pretty hefty, as we have two priced at -700 and only two of the six fights are south of -200.

The shocking development is obviously the iconic Usman coming in as a pretty sizable +215 underdog, but after three straight losses, it’s naturally going to be hard to back the 38-year old with a straight face.

That doesn’t mean we won’t get some upsets at UFC on ESPN 69, but I definitely lean toward the favorites in this card. You can roll with my predictions as they stand, but I do offer a bit more nuance and reasoning to my picks below.

Want even more advice beyond my top UFC on ESPN 69 picks? Be sure to take advantage of the best handicappers in the business before placing your bets.

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UFC on ESPN 69 Predictions For The Main Card

The main card for UFC on ESPN 69 begins at 9:00 pm EST on ESPN and ESPN+.

Joaquin Buckley (-265) vs. Kamaru Usman (+215)

This is a pretty big fight. Buckley is trying to set himself up for a potential shot at a title fight, while Usman is simply trying to stave off retirement. At 38, it does seem like the end is near for Usman (20-4), who has dropped each of his last three bouts.

To be fair, two of those losses came by the hands of Leon Edwards, while the most recent loss was a Decision defeat against Khamzat Chimaev. Nothing to be ashamed of, but as good as Usman once was, he is seven years older than his opponent, and the dominance has left him.

Usman still has nine knockouts to his name, while he’s been facing purely elite competition for years. I definitely give him a chance as an upset pick, but I definitely lean towards the rest hot Buckley, who has rattled off an impressive six-fight winning streak.

Buckley has looked like a new man during this tear, as he dominated Colby Covington and Stephen Thompson, and also grinded out a tough win over Nursulton Ruziboev. He and Usman grade out similarly when looking at reach and impactful striking. Buckley’s youth, finishing upside, and recent form give him the edge.

Do I love laying -265 to bet against Kamaru Usman? Not really, but I think it’s the smart call.

Bet: Joaquin Buckley (-265)

Rose Namajunas (-245) vs. Miranda Maverick (+210)

While I am okay with moving on from Kamaru Usman, I’m not ready to quit Rose Namajunas just yet. She has admittedly had a very up and down career (her 14-7 record says as much), but it’s come against stiff competition and she is as tough as they come.

Namajunas is just an absolute warrior. She did lose in her last fight, but it was a Decision loss against the very skilled Erin Blanchfield. Her two other losses recently came against Manon Fiorot and Carls Esparza – again, nothing to be sad about. She remains a highly skilled fighter that grades out as the more accurate striker than her opponent, while her record and numbers are impacted greatly by the quality of fighters she routinely goes up against.

You can’t say that about Miranda Maverick. She has a better record (15-5) and she’s never been finished, but she also has not faced anyone as good as Namajunas. When she did, she dropped Decisions to Erin Blanchfield, Maycee Barber, and Jasmine Jasudavicius.

I’m not saying Maverick can’t win, but I do think her stats and record are inflated considerably. Due to that, I am more than willing to bet on Namajunas, who at 32 can still keep her name in the title conversation by avoiding a loss here.

Bet: Rose Namajunas (-245)

Edmen Shahbazyan (-190) vs. Andre Petroski (+165)

I’m also pretty high on Edmen Shahbazyan going into UFC Fight Night. He has run into some serious hiccups over the years, going just 3-5 over his last eight fights. However, he did deliver a nice KO win over Dylan Budka in his last fight, while all of his losses have come against stiff competition.

The big thing with Shahbazyan is he knows how to end fights early. Of his 14 wins, 13 have ended via stoppage, and he has 12 KOs to his name. He’s pretty vulnerable to being finished, himself, but he’s still just 27 with a path to title contention if he can heat up again.

Andre Petroski is running out of runway, to be sure. At age 33, he needs a big win here to continue to propel himself into that title convo, but I’m not sure the numbers support his case. He is six years older than Edmen, he loses two inches in height and reach, and he is the less impactful striker.

That’s bad news for someone who has been KO’d three times and has allowed five of his 13 wins to go the distance. The guy he is facing isn’t likely to allow that to happen, so my favorite bets here are a Shahbazyan straight up win, or an inside the distance win from either side.

Bet: Edmen Shahbazyan (-190)

Raoni Barcelos (-180) vs. Cody Garbrandt (+155)

I see that the top MMA sportsbooks are trying to lure us into a Cody Garbrandt bet with this tight pricing. I will say that Raoni Barcelos is certainly getting up there in age at 38, but this is a rare time where I am willing to ignore someone who is considerably longer in the tooth.

Despite his age, Barcelos has a nice 19-5 record, owns a slight reach advantage, and grades out as the far more dangerous striker (5.11 significant strikes landed per minute). He’s also the more accurate striker and has every bit the finishing upside “No Love” possesses, as evidenced by his eight career KO wins.

Barcelos also offers far better takedown offense, and unlike Garbrandt, he’s shown the ability to finish fights on the ground (3 submissions to 0). Garbrandt is absolutely in play as a +155 underdog, as he has 11 knockouts and he’s facing a guy who is five years older. But Barcelos is more well-rounded and has a better chin. I think you’re getting plenty of value with the favorite, too.

Bet: Raoni Barcelos (-180)

Mansur Abdul-Malik (-700) vs. Cody Brundage (+500)

I won’t waste your time here. Mansur Abdul-Malik (8-0) is undefeated, has a massive ML, is younger, and has a 7.5-inch reach edge. He’s been thoroughly dominant with every single fight ending by stoppage (7 KOs), and he’s 2-0 in the UFC with two dominant wins.

Cody Brundage is just 11-6 and looks like a layup for Mansur. He’s maxed out as a fighter already at 31 and has been finished four times in six losses. He does have KO upside (6 knockouts), so you could YOLO your way to a +500 underdog bet if you’d like.

Sadly, Abdul-Malik is the way better fighter and he’s going to win. The ML is not worth targeting, so I’d chase down a KO or inside the distance bet, instead.

Bet: Mansur Abdul-Malik (-700)

Oumar Sy (-700) vs. Alonzo Menifield (+450)

I honestly did not think the favorites would get a clean sweep on the main card, but after a closer look, that is precisely what is happening. Oumar Sy (11-0) is another undefeated fighter with a huge ML, and he’s eight years younger than the guy he’s facing.

Sy has a huge seven-inch reach edge, is four inches taller, and also grades out as the more damaging striker. In addition, he has way better takedown numbers. You could say he hasn’t faced much top shelf competition – and you’d be right – but he’s looked good in a 2-0 start in the UFC and eight of his 11 wins have come via stoppage.

Alonzo Menifield is no chump. He has a solid 16-5-1 record and also boasts 10 career KO wins. However, he is now 37, is just 1-2 over his last three bouts, and hasn’t managed to finish anyone since 2023. An upset isn’t impossible, but I don’t deem it very likely.

Bet: Oumar Sy (-700)

UFC on ESPN 69 Preliminary Card Odds

Check out the latest UFC Fight Night odds for the Preliminary Card.

There is some solid value within the UFC on ESPN 69 Prelims, but most of it would be coming via upsets. I instantly like Rodolfo Bellato and Michael Chiesa – two dudes who could have easily been argued for main card bouts – to get wins, but their price tags aren’t super inviting.

Nobody touches Malcolm Wellmaker, though. He has an obscene -1300 moneyline that we shouldn’t even consider approaching. Kris Moutinho is the ultimate YOLO bet at +775, but ultimately probably a bad one.

Ricky Simon and Cameron Smotherman give me Fight of the Night vibes, which is partially why this bout doesn’t have odds yet. The other reason is Smotherman is a late replacement for Charles Jourdain. Ange Loosa vs. Phil Rowe is also priced super tightly and will be tough to call.

Go with my UFC FN predictions above, or continue on for my fight breakdowns for each matchup.

UFC on ESPN 69 Predictions For The Preliminary Card

The UFC on ESPN 69 kicks off with the Prelims at 5:00 pm EST on ESPN+.

Rodolfo Bellato (-380) vs. Paul Craig (+290)

I can never fully rule out Paul Craig, as he is a terror on the mat (13 submissions) and is historically rather tenacious. However, he hasn’t been able to get wins consistently for a while now. He’s 17-9-1 for his career, but he’s done a ton of losing (1-5) over his last six bouts.

Craig can get it done if he works the fight to the ground, but he’s been finished three times over his last five losses. He’s also eight years older than Rodolfo Bellato (12-2-1) and grades out as the far worse striker.

Bellato is vulnerable to getting knocked out, but he’s been super explosive and versatile, with 11 of his 12 wins coming early. He had a Draw against Jimmy Crute in February, but has otherwise been on a heater, with a TKO win over Ihor Potierira putting him on the map.

Craig could always mess things up, but Bellato is the more dangerous fighter and has the edge in just about every meaningful way. The price isn’t amazing, so look around for some inside the distance or KO props, too.

Bet: Rodolfo Bellato (-380)

Michael Chiesa (-350) vs. Court McGee (+270)

I don’t want to be backing favorites left and right, but sometimes you just have to trust the combination of tape and data. Chiesa (18-7) looks like another favorite worth backing, as he’s three years younger than Court McGee (23-13), is the more accurate striker, and is better at scoring takedowns.

Chiesa has the edge in striking from a sheer numbers perspective, but he is not a threat to end this thing with his fists (0 KOs). He is a menace on the ground, however, as he has 12 career submissions and has proven to be quite tough (1 KO) in general.

He’s vulnerable to submission losses due to where prefers to spend his time in the Octagon, but his recent form is at least stellar with submission wins over both Tony Ferguson and Max Griffin in his last two fights.

Chiesa has admittedly been up and down, as he dropped three in a row before that nice little bounce-back, but he’s faced high-level competition for years now and never blinks.

McGee is now 40 and his losses are starting to pile up a bit, as he’s now just 1-3 over his last four fights. He could prove to be a tougher task than expected for Chiesa, though, as he’s never been submitted across 36 fights.

I won’t guarantee that Chiesa makes him tap, but I do think he has the better ground game and his striking numbers also look good. I think he’ll survive McGee and get the Decision win.

Bet: Michael Chiesa (-350)

Malcolm Wellmaker (-1300) vs. Kris Moutinho (+775)

Next up is Malcolm Wellmaker, who is an astronomical -1300 favorite, which is something I don’t recall seeing for a big UFC event. Something like Bellator or PFL 2? Sure, but not a big UFC on ESPN spectacle.

Regardless, Wellmaker is 9-0 and has been dominant every step of the way, finishing his opponent in seven of nine wins and registering five KOs in the process. The 31-year old is very much on the rise, especially since he made a good first impression with a KO win over Cameron Saaiman in his UFC debut in April.

Wellmaker will be facing Kris Moutinho (14-6), who has six career KOs and a reasonably versatile skill-set, but hasn’t been nearly as impressive. This will be his UFC debut, which is a bit scary considering he grades out as the inferior striker by quite a bit. He also loses three inches in height and reach, which hurts his case even more.

You can always go for the upset, but I think it’s a huge waste of time. I’m not betting on Wellmaker’s ML, but an inside the distance prop makes sense.

Bet: Malcolm Wellmaker (-1300)

Jose Ochoa (-180) vs. Cody Durden (+150)

Finally, we have an upset. I have been largely rolling with UFC on ESPN 69 betting favorites, but in this spot I will take Cody Durden (17-7-1) to stage the upset against Jose Ochoa.

Ochoa is 10 years younger and may be the better fighter overall, but this is a tough matchup for him in his second UFC fight. It’s worth noting that he failed to impress in a Decision loss to Lone’er Kavanagh in his UFC debut last November, and he does give up some striking numbers to Durden.

Durden has been finished five times in his career, but just one of those have come via KO and he’s actually hung tight against some really good fighters. He took Joshua Van to a Decision in his last fight, while he also submitted Matt Schnell last September.

I like Durden’s versatility and finishing ability. He’s ended the fight early in 12 of 17 wins and someone like Ochoa that lacks experience against high-level competition could be a huge win for him.

Bet: Cody Durden (+150)

Ricky Simon (N/A) vs. Cameron Smotherman (N/A)

There are no odds for this fight, so I just have to trust the data and what I see on the tape. I know Ricky Simon is a skilled fighter with strong wrestling, is versatile, and can end fights early. He has 11 finishes to his name and just KO’d Javid Basharat in February.

Simons still has something left in the tank at age 32, but his recent form is still troubling. Before knocking out Basharat, he lost three in a row. His opponent on short notice is Smotherman (12-5), who is pretty unproven with a 1-1 UFC record.

Smotherman has knockout upside (6 KOs), but he has not faced a lot of top shelf fighters to this point in his career. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Simon being listed as a reasonable favorite here, but even if the line ends up being one-sided, he’d still be my pick.

Bet: Ricky Simon (N/A)

Ange Loosa (-132) vs. Phil Rowe (+112)

The odds are tight for this battle between Ange Loosa and Phil Rowe. These guys have identical records at 10-4 and 10-5, respectively, while they’re both around the same age and have similar striking accuracy.

That’s where the similarities end, though. Rowe has a nearly six-inch reach edge, but Loosa is the way more impactful striker with 5.60 significant strikes landed per minute. He’s also the  more aggressive and more successful takedown machine.

Loosa happens to be more physically imposing, too, while he has six KOs to his name and has never been finished. I do think this fight could get away from him if Rowe can survive Loosa’s early onslaughts, but Loosa has been known to grind his opponents down via Decisions, too.

Bet: Ange Loosa (-132)

Jamey-Lyn Horth (-475) vs. Vanessa Demopoulos (+375)

Lastly, we come to just the second match of UFC on ESPN 69 that features some ladies. It probably won’t be a very good one, though, as Jamey-Lyn Horth is a big favorite against Vanessa Demopoulos.

Horth (7-2) has an OK record and lacks the experience Demopoulos does, but she also has a huge seven-inch reach edge, is the way more accurate striker, and is better at getting takedowns.

While not super explosive, Horth is as gritty as they come. She lasted three rounds with Miranda Maverick in her last fight, while she’s proven to be rather versatile.

Demopoulos (11-7) has been around longer and is the more impactful striker, but it hasn’t led to a ton of finishes and she’s just 1-3 over her last four fights. I think the line is a bit rich, but Horth is the more seasoned and battle tested fighter of the two. I don’t expect a finish here, so it’s Horth’s ML or bust.

Bet: Jamey-Lyn Horth (-475)

The Best UFC Fight Night Picks

The following is our best UFC Fight Night picks for this weekend’s event:

• Joaquin Buckley (-265)
• Rose Namajunas (-245)
• Raoni Barcelos (-180)

This is a bad card for betting on UFC underdogs. I think a ton of the favorites are going to win here, so my first suggestion is to ignore the crazy prices and just target the favored fighters who offer the best bang for your buck.

Right now I think that’s Buckley, Rose, and Barcelos.

Buckley is a KO machine. He’s facing a legend in Usman, but Kamaru’s time has come and gone. He could always shock and provide killer value, but Buckleh is way younger and is a man on a mission right now.

Rose is older than Miranda Maverick, but she’s a warrior that is far more battle tested. If you were picking this fight strictly based on recent success or data, you’d take Maverick. But context matters, so I think Maverick is a poor bet.

I always feel like Garbrandt can get a punch in and shock everyone – still do. But Barcelos is the more well-rounded fighter. He isn’t as vulnerable to quick finishes like Cody is, either. Considering how tight that fight is priced, Raoni feels like the way better value.

These are just the UFC on ESPN 69 picks I like the most and feel most confident in. I still stand by all of my other UFC on ESPN 69 predictions, however.

UFC on ESPN 69 Card

Check out the updated UFC Fight Night fight card: